Preliminary Review Shows MIRA Reserving Costly to Public Employers.
Posted by Steve Chmielewski - Tuesday, March 11, 2008
When the BWC switched from the old tabular system to the new MIRA reserving system, the intent was to be revenue neutral. However, based on a review of thousands of claims from the 2002 through 2007 it appears the switch to MIRA reserving had a far more significant impact on public employers than on private employers.
From 2002-2004, the BWC calculated reserves for private employers using both reserving methods. For our sample, the average MIRA reserve was 8.4% higher than the tabular reserves. From 2005, the BWC just used the MIRA reserving system. The MIRA reserves from our sample for 2005-2007 was 7.77% higher than the MIRA reserves from 2002-2004. Assuming the tabular reserves would have remained constant, the average increase in MIRA reserves over tabular reserves from 2005-2007 was 17.53%.
For public employers, the MIRA transition period was from 2003-2005. During this period, the average MIRA reserve was 58.59% higher than the average tabular reserve. For 2006-2007, the average MIRA reserve was about the same as it was from 2003-2005. Therefore, the impact of the MIRA reserving system was more than 3 times as great for public employers than for private employers.
The reason for this is almost solely due to the reserves set for percent permanent partial (%PP) claims and the fact the public employees are much more likely to file %PP claims than private employees. About 6% of all private claims are coded as a %PP claim, while almost 16% of all public claims are coded as %PP.
The result of this is quite significant because the average MIRA reserve for %PP claims exceeds $14,000, while the tabular reserves average less than $4,000. The combined factors of more %PP claims and a much higher average MIRA reserve on those claims resulted in a much greater reserve burden for public employers versus private employers. The impact of just the MIRA reserving resulted in between an 8%-10% increase in premium for public employers since 2006. The premium increase for private employers is around 2%-3%.